Foreword
The Boeing Company issues the biennial World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) to provide a comprehensive up-to-date overview of the air cargo industry. The forecast summarizes the world's major air trade markets, identifies major trends, and presents forecasts for the future performance and development of markets as well as for the world freighter airplane fleet.
Ongoing weak traffic growth characterizes the market for the 2008-2009 edition. World air cargo traffic grew 5.1 percent in 2007, which followed 3.2 percent growth in 2006 and 1.7 percent growth in 2005, making the past three years the weakest growth period for the industry since the first Gulf War, 1990-1992. As we go to press, world air cargo traffic has declined for two consecutive months through June 2008. Record high jet fuel prices, weak economic growth, and turmoil in financial markets have reduced demand for air cargo services. Early third-quarter 2008 reports from carriers point to either continuing weak or negative growth.
Tepid traffic growth can be largely attributed to high fuel prices, which were increasing from late 2003 through July 2008 -- particularly during the first half of 2008 when prices rose nearly 50 percent over December 2007 levels. These high fuel prices, in turn, have made air freight expensive for many shippers. Although concern over the growth prospects of industry is warranted, it is well to recall that a long-term economic growth rate of roughly 3 percent, the continuing globalization of industry, increasing adoption of inventory-reduction strategies, and anticipated operating cost reductions in the freighter fleet should help world air cargo traffic growth return to historic norms.
Information presented as historical in this document was compiled from many sources including, but not limited to, Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG), Airports Council International (ACI), the Air Transport Association (ATA), the Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines, (AAPA), the Association of European Airlines (AEA), Boeing Foreign Trade Database (TRADE), Eurostat, Global Insight, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Form 41. Historical information is updated each year as individual sources revise their respective publications.
This document would not be possible without the efforts of several contributors. The Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2008-2009 production team included the Creative Services Group design, production, and Web teams; the Writing and Editing Services team; and our colleagues in the Market Analysis Group. Also, our colleagues, Mr. Tobias Lutterodt and Mr. Russell Tom, researched and authored our chapters covering North America, Africa, and the Middle East.
Special thanks are extended to Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways, and South African Airways for their photo contributions in the Africa chapter. We are grateful to Mr. Brahim Dahine, Corporate Communication Photographer of Qatar Airways, for his photos found in the Middle East chapter.
The next update to the WACF will appear fourth quarter 2010. The authors welcome any questions or comments readers may have. All queries and suggestions should be directed to:
The Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast Team
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
P. O. Box 3707, MC 21-33
Seattle, WA 98124-2207 USA
Fax: 1-206-766-1030
- 1-206-766-2576
- 1-206-766-2568
- 1-206-766-2643
- 1-206-766-1347